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Sport Nation
The certainties for every remaining Round 4 game
SEN • April 4th, 2025 4:21 pm
Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the seven remaining games in Round 4 across Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Geelong versus Melbourne
Holmes to have 25 disposals
The 2024 Carji Greeves medallist was back to his explosive best last week finishing with 29 touches and a goal after being well held by Marcus Windhager the week before.
The midfielder has taken a liking to the Dees in recent clashes picking up 31 touches in Round 8 last year.
Traditionally, the Demons don’t tag and paid the full price last week with Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson both cashing in with 35 and 36 touches.
If Holmes can find plenty of the footy on Friday night, it could be a long trip home back up the highway for Simon Goodwin’s men.
Luke Mathews
Gold Coast versus Adelaide
Gold Coast to kick 100 points+
The Suns have started the season in stunning fashion, thrashing West Coast by 87 points at Optus Stadium before belting the Demons by 58 points at the MCG.
The Crows couldn’t have done much more in their opening three games, having backed up the preseason hype with convincing wins over St Kilda, Essendon and North Melbourne.
The Suns have had one of the most dangerous forward lines in the competition kicking a combined 256 points in their two games with Ben King kicking 10 goals already.
Despite the strong start to the year, the question marks still remain on Adelaide’s back line having conceded 100 points against Essendon with Saturday marking the toughest test they’ve faced this year.
Luke Mathews
Richmond versus Brisbane
Brisbane to go 4-0
The reigning premiers have hardly put a foot wrong in the opening month of the season, winning their first three matches and sit in third spot on the ladder.
Despite trailing at half time in every game this year, Chris Fagan’s men have been able to find a way to grind out wins against formidable opponents.
In 2024, Brisbane took care of the Tigers with a 119-point win and a victory against Richmond at the MCG would mark their first win over them at the venue since 2009.
If the Lions get the four points on Saturday, they will become only the second premiership team in the last 11 years to start the following season unbeaten after four games.
Luke Mathews
North Melbourne versus Sydney
Larkey to kick 2 goals
The vice-captain is back to his best to begin the 2025 season, kicking 12 goals to lead the Coleman Medal race after just three rounds.
The 2023 Syd Barker Medallist did his best against the Swans last year, booting three of his sides’ nine goals in the 79 point defeat.
Despite picking up the victory against the Dockers, Josh Treacy made the most of the undermanned Swans backline to kick four goals and almost will his side across the line.
The All-Australian will be the most dangerous key forward Dean Cox’s men have faced in 2025 and it won’t get any easier with Robbie Fox and Lewis Melican set to miss again.
Luke Mathews
GWS versus West Coast
Green for 25+ disposals
Since joining the Giants in 2020, Tom Green has been an integral part of their midfield composition.
He has averaged 24 disposals or more across the last four seasons coinciding with the Giants rise up the ladder.
He’s also been on a 19-game streak of getting 25 disposals or more.
With opposition teams putting more onto Finn Callaghan as shown by last week’s match against Hawthorn, this should allow Green more freedom and get some extra disposals as he extends his streak to 20 games.
Nicholas Quinlan
Port Adelaide versus St Kilda
Butters for 5+ contested possessions
The addition of the two-time All-Australian in Zak Butters, is a big inclusion for Port Adelaide as they look to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Essendon last week.
Across the last two years, Butters has expanded his ability to get contested possession by attending more centre bounces where he's had more impacts on games.
Given that he has been out due to surgery on his knee over the pre-season, he may not be his best but he should still have enough opportunities to get at least five contested possessions.
Nicholas Quinlan
Fremantle versus Western Bulldogs
Kennedy 20+ disposals and 2+ clearances
Now at his third club, Matthew Kennedy has finally shown his potential as an inside midfielder with Marcus Bontempelli’s absence providing him with an opportunity on ball.
Attending 81 per cent of all centre bounces in last week’s match against his old club in Carlton, he managed 22 disposals, nine clearances and two goals helping pull off an eight-point win.
Starting as an inside mid once again, Kennedy should provide a replicable performance against Fremantle.
Nicholas Quinlan
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