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Get your Melbourne Cup kitOwner’s favourable and brutal Melbourne Cup calls
SEN • November 3rd, 2025 2:19 pm
Prominent owner John O’Neill has run the rule over the 2025 Melbourne Cup field.
O’Neill has a trio of horses in the great two-mile handicap - Valiant King, Buckaroo and Middle Earth - who he all gives some chance to.
But there are plenty, in his opinion, that cannot win for various reasons.
“I think it’s an unbelievable race, but I think there’s (at least) 15 horses that can’t win,” O’Neill said on SEN & RSN’s Monday Means Test.
O’Neill’s runner-by-runner analysis:
1 - AL RIFFA - “I don’t think Al Riffa with 59kg drawn out there (barrier 19) can win. I don’t think he’s got any hope at all.” ❌
2 - BUCKAROO - “I think Buckaroo can win, drawn a good gate (12).” ✅
3 - ARAPAHO - “Arapaho shouldn’t even be there. Sorry to be rude to the owners.” ❌
4 - VAUBAN - “Vauban isn’t going good enough.” ❌
5 - CHEVALIER ROSE - “Chevalier Rose is a dry tracker.” ❌
6 - PRESAGE NOCTURNE - “We all want to be on this. It’s a very nice horse. Bu the jockey Stephane Pasquier wouldn’t know to get from Crown Casino to Chin Chin, so how’s he going to get around Flemington on a wet track with 23 other horses around him on a wet track. He’s a great horse who can run top five but he can’t win.” 5️⃣
7 - MDDLE EARTH - “Blinkers on, wet track, 3200 - he’s done what he’s needed. Don’t be surprised…” 🤷🏻♂️
8 - MEYDAAN - “Stop it, can’t win from the barrier (22).” ❌
9 - ABSURDE - “No thanks.” ❌
10 - FLATTEN THE CURVE - “Please, no.” ❌
11 - LAND LEGEND - “Land Legend shouldn’t be in the race.” ❌
12 - SMOKIN’ ROMANS - “Nine years old, no.” ❌
13 - CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD - “No.” ❌
14 - HALF YOURS - “Great top five chance.” 5️⃣
15 - MORE FELONS - “More Felons shouldn’t be in the race.” ❌
16 - ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - “Can win a Perth Cup or an Adelaide Cup, but can’t win a Melbourne Cup.” ❌
17 - FURTHUR - “He’s a very nice staying horse, normally runs in fields of four. So we’ll, see how it goes with 24.” 🤷🏻♂️
18 - PARCHMENT PARTY - “Well, there’ll be a party… no hope.” ❌
19 - ATHABASCAN - “Athabascan shouldn’t be there.” ❌
20 - GOODIE TWO SHOES - “Should be on Broadway.” ❌
21 - RIVER OF STARS - “Can definitely run top four.” 4️⃣
22 - ROYAL SUPREMACY - “Can run top five.” 5️⃣
23 - TORRANZINO - “Can run top five or six. Nice horse.” 5️⃣
24 - VALIANT KING - “I think Valiant King, with the weight (51kg), can win the race.” ✅
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