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Get your Melbourne Cup kitAl Riffa retains Melbourne Cup favouritism after track upgrade
Shayne Hope, AAP • November 4th, 2025 2:00 pm
Al Riffa remains the $10 million Melbourne Cup favourite after the Flemington track was upgraded to a soft 6 rating.
Overnight rain is set to continue, easing in the morning with more showers forecast in the afternoon and evening.
More than 34mm of rain fell in the previous 24 hours and up to 10mm is set to fall on Tuesday.
But the draining ability of the Flemington track led to it being upgraded from a soft 7 to a soft 6 by Racing Victoria on Tuesday morning.
That would not have surprised master trainer Chris Waller, who saddles leading contenders Valiant King and Buckaroo in his five-strong Cup assault in the field of 24.
"The beauty of Flemington is it's world-class track," Waller said on Monday.
"It's something special. We've seen rain before but it's just the best surface to race on."
Flemington Racecourse is a little wet under foot after poor weather prior to Melbourne Cup Day | Photo: Joel Carrett/AAP
Joseph O'Brien-trained topweight Al Riffa ($6) will have to defy history under his 59kg impost, ridden by red-hot jockey Mark Zahra.
Both O'Brien and Zahra are aiming to win the Cup for the third time.
Rain Lover won his second Cup in 1969 with 60.5kg but no horse has carried more than 58.5kg to triumph since then.
"History's against us but if anyone can do it, I think he can. I just wouldn't like the track to be a slop," Zahra told RSN on Monday.
"I think rain-affected suits him a lot but with 59kg on a bottomless track if it hoses down all day, that will make it tough for him.
"But heavy 8 range - soft 7 or heavy 8 range - would be perfect.
"I think he's the best horse in the race by far and with the right ride I think he can win with 59kg."
Dual winner Mark Zahra believes his mount Al Riffa can overcome gate 22 and his topweight of 59kg | Photo: Joel Carrett/AAP
Al Riffa replaced Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained Half Yours ($7.50) as favourite after a flood of money on Monday, including a $500,000 bet at the Call of the Card function.
Half Yours is in the rare position of being an Australian-bred fancy amongst the top of the market for the Cup, against the usual tide of imported or visiting European stayers.
Despite the heavy foreign influence of recent times, two Australian-bred horses have won the race in the past six years, with Vow And Declare scoring as an $11 shot in 2019, and Knight's Choice bringing a bolter's victory last year at $91.
Racegoers run for position following the gates opening at Flemington | Photo: James Ross/AAP
Calvin McEvoy expects Half Yours to appreciate the soft track, previously joking he would be doing a "rain dance" after the local hope drew perfectly in barrier eight at Saturday night's draw.
"Love it. Bring it on ... He absolutely loves the wet, this horse," McEvoy said.
"He's been effective his last three runs on good threes but he's much better on heavy ground."
French raider Presage Nocturne ($9), Valiant King ($11) and Buckaroo ($11) round out the top five in betting, with Ireland's Absurde ($19) also in the mix.
Ciaron Maher-trained Tornado Valley won Tuesday's opening race, the Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate, under jockey Ethan Brown, who will ride Middle Earth ($21) for the same trainer in the Cup.
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Zahra continued his hot form by steering Party Crasher to victory in the Grand Handicap - his fifth winner of the Melbourne Cup carnival from eight rides.
It came after Zahra banked four winners at Flemington on Derby Day, including two of the three available Group 1s in the Victoria Derby (Observer) and Coolmore Stud Stakes (Tentyris).
