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Full Noise by SN
Has Observer lost his bulletproof aura?
Connor Scanlon • March 22nd, 2026 12:32 pm
All the money came for Observer late in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) with many punters believing that the Ciaron Maher-trained colt was primed to win that $750,000 race.
In fact, the son of Ghaiyyath ended up jumping as the $2.10 favourite with Sportsbet, ahead of Autumn Boy ($2.50), but couldn’t get the job done.
The Chris Waller-trained son of The Autumn Sun ended up winning the Group 1 by 1.94 lengths, while Observer finished third.
The 2025 Victoria Derby (2500m) winner seemed invincible heading into the race, thanks to winning four wins on the trot in superb fashion but left a sour taste with many supporters on Saturday.
Most notably about the race was that it was run at a slow tempo – something which RSN’s Nick Noonan believes doesn’t suit the bay at all.
Nick: “I don't think Observer was suited to that slow tempo.”
“Like he seems a horse that's much better when he can roll along at a genuine gallop.
“I don't know if he was in love around Rosehill, but I would have liked to have seen him go a bit faster.”
Trav: “He did fire up a little bit in the early stages too.”
Nick: “Maybe because they were going so slow!”
Trav: Yeah, maybe if he had his time again, (Criag Williams) may have let him roll a bit more.”
Continuing the conversation on RSN’s Correct Weight, Nick Noonan’s brother, Trav, stated that Observer has lost his “bulletproof” aura and is susceptible to some vulnerabilities.
“To me, he showed there's some real chinks in the armour,” Trav exclaimed.
“He seemed a bit bulletproof leading into that race there and he comes out of it with some questions.”
Nick agreed with his brother’s synopsis but doubled down on the fact that the colt wasn’t ridden to suit by Williams.
“He does,” agreed Nick.
“Questions about what they do with him in the next run - do they just go back to an (Australian) Derby or look to take on the weight-for-age path.
“He probably showed that he's not the bulletproof horse that some thought he was, but I don't think he was given his best opportunity under the way he was ridden.
“I think he's a much better horse when he's able to lead and lead at a genuine pace.”
Observer was the $3.50 favourite with Sportsbet to win the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick on April 4 but has now slid to $8.
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