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Stanley Cup Playoffs: A punter's guide to the second round
Logan Swinkels • May 7th, 2025 12:00 pm
Photo: NHL
The NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs have arrived at the next stage after the opening round ended in the most dramatic way possible - a Game 7 that went to double-overtime to determine the winner.
With ice hockey being a niche sport in New Zealand, I thought it was worth pooling together my decades of watching playoff hockey to help Sport Nation listeners find some value in their betcha bets, continuing with Game 1 of the Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes, followed by the Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers.
Check back as this guide is updated with the other series as they begin.
Vegas: 1.72 / Edmonton: 2.10 to win series (as of May 7, ahead of Game 1)
The plucky Edmonton Oilers sure have the LA Kings’ number in the past four post-seasons, and now they continue their march towards what they’ll hope is another Finals berth. For anyone who’s watched Amazon’s ‘Faceoff: Inside the NHL’ series, you’ll understand what lengths they’ll go to just to get back there.
Now they face the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round, however they don’t have much playoff history between them with just one series in 2023 won by Vegas in six games en route to lifting the Stanley Cup.
The pressure is on Edmonton to make the most of their golden years of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl driving their attack, who have 11 and 10 playoff points respectively after Round 1. Their biggest problem was between the pipes with goalie Stuart Skinner struggling with 6.11 GAA, replaced by Calvin Pickard who backstopped the Oilers to four straight wins at an improved 2.93 GAA.
As for the Golden Knights, their powerplay and penalty kill have been middle of the road these playoffs and need to catch fire, yet they’re favoured by betcha in the series betting market. The likes of Jack Eichel and Mark Stone will also be tasked with slowing down McDavid and Draisaitl.
I had the pleasure of seeing the Golden Knights live while in Vegas for the NRL’s season opener and they’re a very fun team to watch. When they’re aggressive on the puck and creating chances out of nothing, they’re hard to handle – although that was against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks – but they will test the Oilers greater than the Kings could.
Edmonton have the depth to find scoring elsewhere in their lineup, and it’s that level of talent, matched with their clear will to win, that I see them beating Vegas in 6.
Players to pick for multis
Anytime Goal scorer:
Tomas Hertl (3.30) is enjoying a solid post-season with Vegas, scoring 3 goals, while they have several defencemen that like getting amongst the goals including Shea Theodore (11.50), Noah Hanifin (7.50), and Alex Pietrangelo (8.50).
Speaking of defence, Evan Bouchard (5.00) is Edmonton’s top goal-scorer with 4 goals. The depth scoring of Connor Brown (6.60) and Zach Hyman (2.65) also provide some enticing options for that multi.
Players Points Markets:
McDavid’s points market is set higher than most at 1.5, paying 1.98 for the over and 1.73 for the under, he’s also averaging 1.5 points per game. Veteran Corey Perry is an option for those looking for something more, he’s paying 2.20 for over 0.5 points and 1.60 for under – he only needs one point for that come through and plays on the top line alongside McDavid and Draisaitl, and gets valuable minutes on the second powerplay unit.
Taking that same approach with Vegas, William Karlsson shares a line with Eichel and Stone but is paying 2.02 for over 0.5 points and 1.70 for under. He also centres their secondary unit on the powerplay.
Photo: NHL
Washington: 2.25 / Carolina: 1.65 to win series (as of May 7, ahead of Game 1)
The Washington Capitals had a remarkable regular season to finish top of the Eastern Conference on the back of captain Alex Ovechkin chasing and eventually breaking Wayne Gretzky’s NHL career goal scoring record – now he wants a second Stanley Cup to go with it.
What stands in his way is the second best team of the Metropolitan Division, the Carolina Hurricanes. The season series between the two was split, and both sides looked equally impressive dispatching their first round opponents in 5 games.
Where they differ is on the powerplay and penalty kill with Carolina the fifth best in scoring while their opponent has a player in the penalty box, and league best when they’re killing off a penalty themselves. In fact, they haven’t given up a single goal shorthanded yet. Washington are ranked 10th and 13th for their respective special teams.
The other major factor that could stop Washington is Carolina’s starting goalie Frederik Andersen. When he’s healthy, and he’s had his issues in the past, he can be near-unbeatable as seen in the first round while producing elite figures of .936 save percentage (.900 is considered the standard) and 1.59 goals against average (2.00 GAA is respectable).
If they can’t solve Freddie and the Hurricanes’ penalty kill, this could be over before we know it. But I see Ovi’s side digging in for a 7-game series victory and showing why the finished top of the East.
Players to pick for multis
Anytime Goal Scorer:
Alex Oveckhkin (2.65) is a no-brainer, he sits in ‘his office’ near the top of the left faceoff circle on the first powerplay unit and already has 4 goals in the 2025 playoffs. However, Connor McMichael (4.10) could also be an option - he centres the second unit, has 3 and looked solid when called upon.
For the Hurricanes, Andrei Svechnikov (3.60) with 5 goals is their main danger man, but Seth Jarvis (2.85) and Sebatian Aho (2.90) are worthy picks too.
Players Points Markets:
As I mentioned yesterday in my thoughts on the Leafs-Panthers series, I’ve found this market as a good way to add value to your multis across other games and sports.
In this series I can’t go past Washington’s Dylan Strome who’s scoring 1.8 points per game with 9 in the playoffs so far – currently paying 1.48 for over 0.5 points, 2.45 for under. His counterpart is Carolina’s Sebastian Aho with 8 points over 5 games (1.6 points/game) is 1.55 for over 0.5 points, 2.30 for under.
Player Goals Against Markets:
Frederik Andersen is currently 1.59 GAA in the playoffs and is paying 1.78 for over 2.5 goals allowed, 1.92 for under that – take the under. As for Capitals netminder Logan Thompson, he’s at 2.23 GAA in five games played, paying 1.65 for over 2.5 goals, 2.10 for under – there’s a strong chance he goes over against the Capitals.
Winnipeg: 2.45 / Dallas: 1.55 to win series (as of May 7, ahead of Game 1)
Toronto: 2.50 / Florida: 1.53 to win series (odds as of May 6, ahead of Game 1)
The Florida Panthers are favoured here as the defending Stanley Cup champions, who made relative short work of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, winning 4-1 to advance. They also have had the better of their next opponent during the regular season, beating the Maple Leafs 3-1 in their 2024-25 season series.
Toronto have historically been known as chokers in the playoffs, which pains me to say as a fan who bleeds blue and white.
Last week, that tendency to crumble under pressure almost reared its ugly head again against the Ottawa Senators, after being 3-0 up in the series it took six games to knock out their provincial rival, kissing goodbye any chance of resting battered bodies before facing Florida.
The Panthers can be gritty and rack up penalties, allowing the Leaf’s explosive powerplay to get into the game. They’re currently operating at a 35.3% scoring rate - third best in the playoffs (an adequate powerplay typically runs at 20%).
But while the Senators failed to stop them, Florida’s defence can provide resistance while down a player (or two) with the playoff’s second-best penalty kill unit, nullifying 88.9% of penalties called against them.
I expect this one to be tight, with overtimes playing a factor - Leafs win in 6, or Panthers in 7 if the series stretches that far.
Players to pick for multis
Anytime Goal Scorer:
William Nylander (2.35), John Tavares (2.70) and Matthew Knies (3.40) are tied for first with three goals apiece. Each contributes on the powerplay, along with captain Auston Matthews (1.80) who has two goals. Knies is really tempting at that price, as he continues to prove to be a playoff performer.
Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk (2.65) is an absolute menace who isn’t afraid to get amongst the rough stuff, while showing he’s got the scoring touch with three goals in round 1. The threat of Sam Reinhart (2.70) and Carter Verhaeghe (2.85) on the top powerplay line, and Sam Bennett (3.40) on the secondary unit are also strong contenders.
Player Points Markets:
Anytime goal scorer is a classic option for a multi, but I’ve been having success these playoffs with the player points markets when combining across other games and/or sports.
One key option is Nylander who leads Toronto with nine points at an average of 1.5 per game. With the market set to 0.5 for the over/under – at his current pace - it would be a feat to keep him off the scoresheet. He’s currently 1.50 for the over, 2.45 for the under.
Reinhart is in a similar position as the Panthers’ leading points scorer. With 6 points in 5 games, the market is nearly identical to Nylander for the over/under.
Photo: NHL
Across the eight matchups in the first round, I was able to predict seven of them. The one that stopped my eight-leg multi short was the Edmonton Oilers, who came back from 2-0 down to knock out the LA Kings for the fourth straight post-season.
Here's how I see the second round going - the only favourite I'm backing are the Dallas Stars, otherwise I foresee a round of upsets with Toronto ending the defending champions' run, Washington's crusade to get Alex Ovechkin one more ring continuing, and Edmonton fighting to prove they deserve to be back in the Stanley Cup Finals after losing in seven games in 2024.
Toronto to beat Florida – 2.50
Washington to beat Carolina – 2.25
Edmonton to beat Vegas – 2.10
Dallas to beat Winnipeg – 1.55
TOTAL STAKE = 18.31
Washington to beat Carolina – 2.25
Edmonton to beat Vegas – 2.10
Dallas to beat Winnipeg – 1.55
TOTAL STAKE = 18.31
All betcha odds are current at the time of publishing - R18, please gamble responsibly.
