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Find your frequency hereWho has the hardest run home to the NRL Finals?
Sam Kosack • July 24th, 2025 4:22 pm
The NRL's run home is officially here as we enter the final seven weeks of the 2025 season.
As the top eight continues to take shape, there’s twelve teams still in with a chance at making finals as we approach Round 21.
SEN has calculated the teams with the easiest to hardest draw, with a team’s ladder position equivalent to a certain amount of points.
The Titans are worth one point as they currently sit in last, while the Raiders are worth 17. A bye is worth 0.
The Raiders have the third easiest draw as they push on towards their second minor premiership, and their first since 1990, while the Sea Eagles are up against it as all six teams they’re yet to play are still in the finals hunt.
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Here’s how your team fares heading into the run home:
1. Sharks = 36
Current Position: 8th (10W, 8L, +21).
Run Home: Rabbitohs (3), Cowboys (5), Dragons (7), Titans (1), Bye (0), Knights (4), Bulldogs (16).
The Sharks currently sit in eighth but have the easiest draw for the run home, only playing one team in the top eight and with a bye.
While a top four finish may be out of reach, considering they are three wins behind the Warriors, the Sharks should be expected to push for a home final, having also lost no players to rep duties during the Origin period.
2. Warriors = 47
Current Position: 4th (12W, 5L, +36).
Run Home: Titans (1), Dolphins (9), Bulldogs (16), Dragons (7), Titans (1), Eels (2), Sea Eagles (11).
Much like the Sharks, the Warriors only play one team in the four, but also take on the Sea Eagles in Round 27 where they could rest players instead of making the trip to Brookvale.
The easy draw will almost solidify a home final for the Warriors at some point during the finals; a much needed advantage given the season-ending injuries to Luke Metcalf and Mitch Barnett.
3. Raiders = 49
Current Position: 1st (15W, 3L, +132).
Run Home: Knights (4), Dragons (7), Sea Eagles (11), Bye (0), Panthers (12), Tigers (6), Dolphins (9).
The Raiders play none of their top four counterparts but do come up against the Sea Eagles and Penrith in their only top eight competitors for the run home.
If results go as expected, the easy draw should mean the Raiders finish top of the ladder for their second ever minor premiership and will go a long way towards winning their first premiership since 1994.
The bye will be an additional help for the Raiders given what has been a big season for the club’s young players.
4. Broncos = 53
Current Position: 5th (10W, 7L, +80).
Run Home: Eels (2), Rabbits (3), Storm (15), Dolphins (9), Knights (4), Cowboys (5), Storm (15).
The Broncos have to face the Storm twice in their run home but an otherwise soft draw should see them qualify for finals in Michael Maguire’s first season.
It wasn’t long ago pressure was mounting on the Broncos after dropping six games in a period of seven, but the club has since come good and will only get stronger now their first choice spine can begin to build their combinations.
Their results against the Storm will be a good indicator towards how far they will go in this competition.
5. Wests Tigers = 62
Current Position: 12th (7W, 11L, -101).
Run Home: Panthers (12), Bulldogs (16), Bye (0), Sea Eagles (11), Cowboys (5), Raiders (17), Titans (1).
The Wests Tigers are the definition of the iconic Jim Carrey line: ‘so you’re telling me there’s a chance’.
The Tigers sit in 12th, three wins off the eight and will have to play the Panthers, Bulldogs, Sea Eagles, and Raiders in their run home.
However, one more bye, the Cowboys, and the Titans mean the Tigers could continue to pick up points, and if they can nab some big upsets against some of their top eight rivals, it would make for a fairytale season for the club.
6. Dolphins = 64
Current Position: 9th (9W, 9L, +169).
Run Home: Bye (0), Warriors (14), Roosters (8), Broncos (13), Sea Eagles (11), Titans (1), Raiders (17).
The Dolphins sit in ninth just one win behind the Sharks and Sea Eagles, however, with a bye this week that could see them inside the eight by the end of the round.
The Dolphins also boast the second best for and against in the competition, far outweighing that of the clubs around them.
On their day, the Dolphins can beat anyone, having already beaten three of the top four by 13 plus, and would be dangerous if they qualify for their maiden finals appearance.
7. Panthers = 66
Current Position: 6th (9W, 1D, 8L, +45).
Run Home: Tigers (6), Titans (1), Knights (4), Storm (15), Raiders (17), Bulldogs (16), Dragons (7).
It wasn’t long ago the four-time premiers were last - nine rounds to be exact - but jump to now, and the club is gearing up for potentially another finals campaign.
With their NSW Origin stars fuelled by a series loss, the Panthers’ season will come down to a three-week stretch where they play the top three.
Those three weeks will give us the best indicator of where the club is at in their pursuit of a fifth straight premiership.
8. Roosters = 71
Current Position: 10th (8W, 9L, +8).
Run Home: Storm (15), Sea Eagles (11), Dolphins (9), Bulldogs (16), Eels (2), Storm (15), Rabbits (3).
The Roosters are scheduled to come up against the Storm twice in the final seven rounds, which will make their trip to the finals that much harder. Round 20’s loss to the Sharks could prove extremely costly.
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T9. Dragons = 72
Current Position: 11th (6W, 11L, -58).
Run Home: Cowboys (5), Raiders (17), Sharks (10), Warriors (14), Rabbitohs (3), Sea Eagles (11), Panthers (12).
Sitting three wins out of the eight with seven weeks remaining, a tough run home may mean an unlikely finals run is mission impossible for Shane Flanagan’s men.
With five of their final seven against sides in the top eight currently, the Dragons will need to have saved their best for last.
That said, going down to the Bulldogs in the final 20 seconds is a sign they can match it with the best, and if they can ice some games like that, anything’s possible.
T9. Storm = 72
Current Position: 3rd (12W, 5L, +218).
Run Home: Roosters (8), Eels (2), Broncos (13), Panthers (12), Bulldogs (16), Roosters (8), Broncos (13).
All season, the Storm have been in what seems to be second gear.
They have raced out to big wins against teams like the Eels, Wests Tigers, and Sea Eagles, but have also been unable to hang onto their leads in important contests, notably against the Dolphins, Raiders, and Sea Eagles, all of whom they may run into in finals.
While still the favourites to take out the premiership, a tough run home in their quest for a top two finish and a home final means the Storm must kick into the first gear we all expect is coming but haven’t seen yet.
11. Bulldogs = 76
Current Position: 2nd (13W, 4L, +98).
Run Home: Sea Eagles (11), Tigers (6), Warriors (14), Roosters (8), Storm (15), Panthers (12), Sharks (10).
The next seven weeks will prove whether or not the Bulldogs are genuine contenders in this competition. Sitting in the top four since literally week two, the Bulldogs have enjoyed a terrific season.
Bold mid-season decisions around the make-up of the spine threatened to derail their start, but if they can continue to win against the best, there will be no doubts about their abilities or their squad decisions leading into finals.
12. Sea Eagles = 77
Current Position: 7th (9W, 8L, +60).
Run Home: Bulldogs (16), Roosters (8), Raiders (17), Tigers (6), Dolphins (9), Dragons (7), Warriors (14).
If Manly can make the finals, they will have truly earned it. Currently sitting in seventh, the Sea Eagles only play teams still in the finals hunt, including the entire top four.
Round 20’s win over the Storm showed the Sea Eagles can go toe to toe with the best, but to do it every week for the next seven weeks will be a massive test.
If they make finals, they’ll be well set to challenge for a fairytale in DCE’s final year.
