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Is J-Mac profitable when riding favourites?
Connor Scanlon • August 3rd, 2026 5:37 pm
James McDonald is undoubtedly Australia’s current premier jockey, but is the country's all-time Group 1 winning hoop profitable against market expectations when riding favourites?
Punters are fairly volatile to their treatment towards J-Mac, either praising or slamming the hoop based on whether he wins on favourites or not, with some claiming McDonald is elite on favourites, while others exclaim they hardly win on him.
Ignoring the commentary, does McDonald statistically make or lose punters money?
Racing analysts Miles Pfitzner & Tom Haylock were of the belief on SENTrack’s Layback that J-Mac would be slightly non-profitable for punters across the 2025/2026 racing season.
Pfitzner: “That's a tough call. I'd say it would be tight.”
“We talk J-Mac tax. I'm going to say only slightly non-profitable.”
Haylock: “Yeah, that's the way I would've gone.”
However, Betfair found that McDonald is actually the most profitable jockey on metropolitan favourites in the entire country, even doubling the next best.
J-Mac rode 153 metropolitan favourites last season for 67 winners, making punters $1,417 if they staked to win $100 on each ride.
The next most profitable jockey on metropolitan favourites was Jason Collett ($737.75 profit), followed by Jason Holder ($731.82), Logan Bates ($532.46) and Clint Johnston-Porter ($488.74).
When looking at the hoops who are the most costly for punters on metropolitan favourites, it is actually none other than WA’s finest jockey, William Pike.
Pike rode 203 metropolitan favourites last season for 75 winners, but lost punters $1,436.88 if they staked to win $100 on each ride.
Blake Shinn followed Pike, losing $1,042.58 for punters, then came Tommy Berry ($999.14 lost), Mark Zahra ($816.71 lost) and Beau Mertens ($790.88 lost).
Watch Pfitzner & Haylock’s full reaction to the list of most and least profitable jockeys against market expectations for the 25/26 racing season below:
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