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Live sport on SN this weekendDu Plessis vs Usman: UFC Oklahoma bets and analysis (19/07)
Connor Scanlon • July 17th, 2026 6:16 pm
The UFC takes place in Oklahoma this weekend and is being headlined by former middlewight champion Dricus Du Plessis versus former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.
The main card consists of five fights and will kick off at 10:15am AEST on Sunday morning.
See the full analysis of the UFC Oklahoma main card below:
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman (Main event)
Odds:Dricus Du Plessis - $1.41Kamaru Usman - $2.93
Analysis:This is a fascinating clash between one of the best middleweights in the world and one of the greatest welterweights of all time.
Dricus Du Plessis enters this fight looking to bounce back after losing his middleweight title to Khamzat Chimaev. Despite that setback, Du Plessis remains one of the toughest and most complete fighters in the UFC. His pressure, cardio and fight IQ are all elite, and his unorthodox striking style continues to create problems for opponents who struggle to read his attacks.
While Du Plessis is primarily a striker, he is more than capable of mixing in wrestling when required. The biggest weakness shown throughout his career come against Khamzat Chimaev where Du Plessis was easily controlled on the ground. However, even when controlled, Du Plessis proved incredibly durable and difficult to finish.
Kamaru Usman is exactly the type of wrestler capable of testing that weakness. His takedowns, top control and ground-and-pound are among the best we have seen in modern MMA, and his cardio allows him to maintain that pressure for extended periods. On top of that, Usman's kickboxing is also among the top echelon.
The path to victory for Usman is clear. He needs to replicate the blueprint that Chimaev used and spend large portions of the fight controlling Du Plessis on the ground. The challenge is that Du Plessis has had close to a year to focus on correcting that exact issue.
Ultimately, the move up in weight class for Usman is difficult to ignore. Du Plessis is the natural middleweight and should enjoy significant advantages in size, strength and power. While Usman is capable of winning rounds through wrestling, sustaining that success against a larger opponent for the entire fight will be extremely difficult.
Expect Du Plessis to defend enough takedowns, keep the fight standing for long stretches and use his size and striking to secure the victory.
Prediction:Dricus Du Plessis to win.
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Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Co-main)
Odds:Jared Cannonier - $3.78Christian Leroy Duncan - $1.27
Analysis:This fight feels like a passing-of-the-torch matchup between an established veteran and a rising contender.
Jared Cannonier remains one of the most technical strikers in the division. His fight IQ is excellent, he manages distance well and he still possesses the cardio to compete at a high pace over three rounds. He is also capable of mixing in grappling when necessary.
However, age is becoming an increasingly important factor. At 42 years old, Cannonier appears to have lost a step, and recent performances suggest his durability is not quite what it once was. He has been rocked and dropped multiple times over his last few fights and has lost three of his last four contests.
Christian Leroy Duncan presents a difficult stylistic matchup. The Englishman is incredibly light on his feet, using a karate-based style built around movement, range management and explosive attacks. His footwork is excellent, his leg kicks are dangerous and he carries genuine knockout power.
The striking exchanges should be competitive, as Cannonier's experience and technical ability will allow him to have success. However, Duncan appears to hold clear advantages in speed, explosiveness and athleticism.
One avenue Cannonier may explore is wrestling. Duncan has shown vulnerabilities when opponents are able to take him down and control him on the mat. If Cannonier chooses to pursue that game plan, he could make the fight much closer than expected.
Still, if this remains primarily a striking battle, Duncan's youth, speed and power should allow him to edge the exchanges and eventually pull ahead.
Prediction:Christian Leroy Duncan to win.
Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez
Odds:Chase Hooper - $1.27Mitch Ramirez - $3.82
Analysis:This fight is a classic striker versus grappler matchup.
Mitch Ramirez is an aggressive striker who throws everything with power. While his accuracy can be inconsistent, he only needs one clean shot to change a fight. The problem is that his aggressive style often comes at a cost. Ramirez tends to expend a huge amount of energy early and can fade badly as fights progress.
The bigger concern for Ramirez is his grappling. He has shown vulnerabilities to takedowns and submissions, and opponents have repeatedly found success once they get him to the ground. Defending body triangles has been a particular issue in recent fights.
That is bad news against Chase Hooper.
While Hooper has clear limitations on the feet and can be hurt by powerful strikers, his jiu-jitsu remains one of the most underrated in the UFC. Once he gets opponents into grappling exchanges, he becomes incredibly dangerous and constantly searches for submissions.
The key to this fight will be whether Hooper can survive the early danger. Ramirez will likely come out aggressively looking for a knockout, and Hooper's durability has been questioned before.
If Hooper gets through that opening storm, the matchup should begin to swing heavily in his favour. Ramirez's cardio issues and defensive grappling vulnerabilities create exactly the type of opportunities that Hooper thrives on.
Expect some nervous moments for Hooper early, but if the fight hits the mat, his jiu-jitsu should take over.
Prediction:Chase Hooper to win.
Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline
Odds:Tabatha Ricci - $4.35Fatima Kline - $1.22
Analysis:This is a highly competitive matchup between two well-rounded fighters, but the striking dynamics appear to favour Fatima Kline.
Tabatha Ricci holds black belts in both jiu-jitsu and judo, yet much of her recent success has come through her boxing and high-volume striking attack. She constantly pushes forward and looks to overwhelm opponents with activity.
However, Ricci's shorter reach can create problems against longer opponents. While her takedown defence is generally solid and her get-ups are strong, she has struggled at times against opponents who can consistently pressure her with grappling or maintain controlling positions.
Kline brings a very diverse skill set into this fight. She is a dangerous striker with a long reach, an excellent jab and strong distance management. Her ability to enter and exit range quickly allows her to land cleanly while avoiding unnecessary damage.
Beyond her striking, Kline also has effective takedowns, submission threats and solid top control. That gives her multiple ways to win rounds if the fight becomes close on the feet.
Ricci's pace could become a factor in the later stages though as Kline has shown signs of slowing down during longer fights. But over the majority of the contest, Kline's range management and physical advantages should allow her to dictate where the fight takes place.
Kline’s range control and long jab will pay dividends throughout the fight, and she should win this one.
Prediction:Fatima Kline to win.
Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!
Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes
Odds:Tommy McMillen - $1.64Alberto Montes - $2.27
Analysis:This matchup showcases two exciting prospects with completely different approaches to fighting.
Tommy McMillen, the protégé of Sean O'Malley, fights with relentless aggression. From the opening bell he throws heavy strikes and looks to overwhelm opponents with pressure. The problem is that his style can be reckless. He absorbs plenty of damage himself, often sacrifices defence for offence and has a tendency to gas himself out by throwing massive shots early.
While McMillen possesses genuine power and dangerous front-headlock attacks, he is still a raw prospect who relies heavily on chaos to create opportunities.
Alberto Montes is the complete opposite.
Montes is an incredibly technical striker whose style closely resembles Ilia Topuria. He is composed, defensively responsible and extremely selective with his shot selection. His boxing fundamentals are excellent, and he regularly complements them with damaging leg kicks.
Montes is also dangerous on the mat. While he is not known for offensive wrestling, his front-headlock game and anaconda choke are legitimate weapons. In fact, he enters this fight riding a five-fight submission streak.
The biggest danger for Montes will be handling McMillen's pressure early. McMillen's volume and aggression can quickly make fights uncomfortable, particularly against opponents who prefer a measured pace like Montes.
However, the longer the fight goes, the more it begins to favour Montes. As McMillen tires and leaves defensive openings, Montes' clean boxing and technical precision should become increasingly effective.
Whether it comes through a submission or knockout, Montes appears to have more paths to victory. Expect him to weather the early storm before capitalising on McMillen's defensive mistakes.
Prediction:Alberto Montes to win.
$100 Staking Plan
$50 MULTI @ $2.18 (returns $109)Dricus Du Plessis to winChristian Leroy Duncan to winFatima Kline to win
$25 PROP @ $7 (returns $175)Alberto Montes to win by KO/TKO
$25 WIN @ $2.30 (returns $57.50)Alberto Montes to win
Scanlon's Special
The Scanlon's Special this week will be a full main card WIN multi @ $6.50!
Leg 1 - Alberto Montes to winLeg 2 - Fatima Kline to winLeg 3 - Chase Hooper to winLeg 4 - Christian Leroy Duncan to winLeg 5 - Dricus Du Plessis
Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!
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