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Find your Sport Nation frequencyAndrew O’Toole’s Saturday best bets at Darwin (19/07)
Andrew O’Toole • July 19th, 2025 12:30 pm
Ladbrokes NT Derby Day will be up for decision at Fannie Bay in Darwin today as the Carnival rolls on in the Top End. Day 4 is always a well-attended fixture and the black and white outfits will be out in force for the eight-race card, featuring two feature events, the $135,000 Ladbrokes NT Derby for the 3yos and the $50,000 Buntine Handicap for horses trying to win their way into the Great Northern Darwin Cup in just over a fortnight’s time. Both are over the extreme distance for Fannie Bay of 2050m and promise to produce plenty of excitement.
A full field will take part in the Derby, with two emergencies, Saxon Beach and The Accelator, unlikely to gain runs. The Darwin Guineas form is normally reliable when it comes to the Derby, although the additional 450m has a tendency to pull a number of horses up. Vanguard Legend was impressive when scoring in the Guineas, but the runner-up, The Men Went Home, I fancy can turn the tables on his last-start conqueror.
The Men Went Home, a quality son of O’lonhro trained by Kerry Petrick in Alice Springs, won the Guineas in the Red Centre at his first start in the NT on 22 March, and has since finished second on three occasions, twice to Vanguard Legend and once behind Bruno Bruno. He was beaten 1.5 lengths in the Darwin Guineas but the winner got all favours in the run while Denton had to traverse wider and lost valuable ground around the home turn. A wide draw this time, as strange as it may sound, might be better for The Men Went Home, who drew one in the Guineas and was cluttered up between runners during much of the run.
Petrick and Denton have combined to win this race on two occasions recently, with Venting scoring in 2022 and Anphina the following year. Denton won the race previously when piloting Rocket Flight, trained by Algy Trengrove, back in 1997, 27 years ago! He is a master horseman and now in his 60s, a fourth NT Derby would come as no surprise.
Vanguard Legend is obviously the hardest horse to beat, and Chloe Baxter’s son of Microphone has won three of his last four starts in the hands of Jade Hampson. He was very good winning the Guineas but was quite fierce in the run which he would not want to be over this additional 450m. However, Hampson seems to get on very well with the bay, who will be looking to carry off the $50,000 Darwin Double for the horse that can win both the Guineas and the Derby. He will give a great sight in pursuit of that bonus as well as the first prize of just over $89,000.
Baxter’s second string Capitol Hill must be included in your multiples. The Prized Icon gelding was strong through the line when scoring in the Guineas consolation on 5 July, and was only 0.32sec slower than Vanguard Legend when winning the Guineas. Jason Lyon, who won the Rosebowl on Wednesday aboard Hell Fire Miss for Baxter, teams with Capitol Hill again and the fine rider really has his eye in as seeks his first NT Derby.
Star Casino is an interesting runner, having won his last two starts at Port Augusta over 1498m and 1867m respectively. Trained by Travis Double at Morphettville, Star Casino has looked like a horse that would relish a trip, and the son of Casino Prince, although tackling Fannie Bay for the first time, cannot be underestimated.
Bruno Bruno tried hard behind the Guineas quinella pair, and was beaten 5.5 lengths. The trip may be a concern for him, although the Hellbent stock is flying in Darwin and had two winners on Wednesday – Devils Delight and Hell Fire Miss.
The Chris Nash pair of Vieri and Dream Baby finished sixth and eighth respectively in the Guineas, and would need to improve, although both appear as though the extra ground will assist their chances. Bollon has been a little inconsistent but with Jarrod Todd and Gary Clarke combining, he should not be overlooked – that combination won the Derby 12 months ago with an outsider, Masatora. Graysville chased home Capitol Hill a fortnight ago and has seven-time Derby-winning jockey Paul Shiers to guide his chances, while Pigeon caught the eye when fifth in the Guineas, beaten less than six lengths. Rampazetto and Pub Crawl complete the line-up, and while it would be hard to see either winning, the former has been placed over 1850m at Mudgee and is trained by two-time Derby-winning trainer Neil Dyer.
The Buntine has attracted a field of just seven runners, and Iknowhatyouredoing, the winner of his last two starts and successful over this trip on Darwin Cup day a year ago, looks to have an undeniable chance. Trained by Kevin Lamprecht in Alice Springs, the son of Husson has a few quirks and can give away big starts in his races, but he has a powerful finish as evidenced by his last two wins here over 1600m on 21 June and 5 July. Jessica Booth, who rode the Palmerston Rydges Cup winner Hettinger on Wednesday, again combines with the chestnut, who should take all sorts of beating.
Unquestionably came from last to win here last week over 1600m and should be the hardest for Iknowhatyouredoing to beat, while Desert Mist has done little wrong lately although is tackling the distance for the first time. He’s Maverick, on his best form, would give this a shake – last year’s Guineas winner finished second in the Derby on this day 12 months ago and has since finished third to Hasseltoff and Write Your Name in the Alice Springs Cup (2000m).
The weather in the Top End this week has again been classic dry season weather, with lovely fine days and cooler nights. The official forecast for today reads: The chance of morning fog. Mostly sunny day. Light winds. The temperature is forecast to reach 31 degrees during the day, and 19 overnight, while there is just a 5% chance of any rainfall.
The first race on the eight-race card gets underway at 12.56pm (NT time), which is 1.26pm on the eastern seaboard, while the last is timed to go at 5.19pm (NT time), or 5.49pm in New South Wales and Victoria.
BEST BETS
R3 # 3 BAHAMA BAYHas done little wrong in two Top End starts, with a pair of fine, close-up second placings behind Lumber Punk on 28 June, and Boldinho here last week. That latest effort over 1200m, the same distance as this assignment, was first-class, going down by just 0.2 lengths in a very slick time. This looks his race to win and trainer Kerry Petrick and rider Paul Denton deserve a change of luck.
R5 # 5 DOWN THE WICKETScored narrowly but impressively at his first Top End start on 14 June, so has had a break of five weeks between runs. Earlier form in the Red Centre outstanding, and looks a most promising galloper in the making. Drawn the ace here and in this small field, can take a sit if required and will be strong late. Hannah Le Blanc’s 1.5kg claim will assist, and can continue on his winning way.
R8 # 8 THE MEN WENT HOMETried hard in the Guineas but was no match for Vanguard Legend’s turn of foot over the last 250m. However, the extra trip of the Derby looks likely to favour the ever-consistent son of O’lonhro, who has not finished out of the first two in four NT starts to date. Beat Vanguard Legend fair and square in the Alice Guines back in late March and although drawn awkwardly here, he will be right there when the pressure goes on in the Blue Riband over 2050m.
SELECTIONS
FANNIE BAY RACECOURSE (DARWIN) – GOODRACE 1 – 1, 3, 2, 7RACE 2 – 1, 4, 2, 3RACE 3 – 3, 1, 2, 4RACE 4 – 7, 1, 8, 4RACE 5 – 5, 1, 6, 2RACE 6 – 4, 1, 11, 2RACE 7 – 2, 5, 6, 4RACE 8 – 8, 9, 3, 7
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